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Macro

Eurex: Another Vote


Morning Briefing January 16th 2018

Wednesday's three key pieces of data come from Europe. At 0700GMT, the December EU ACEA car registrations are published, November Italy industrial orders are due at 0900GMT and the December UK CPI data at 0930GMT.

Car registrations in the EU declined by 8.0% y/y in November. This is hardly surprising given the slowdown in global demand and industrial production in the Euro Area member countries. Industrial orders in Italy fell by 0.3% m/m in October and will be closely watched following weakness in November across the continent.

UK CPI in November was 2.3%. However, as a result of a drop of fuel prices of 4.4% in December, as well as tobacco duties coming a month earlier, the MNI median points to a drop of two pp to 2.1% y/y in December. Should this hold true, it would be the lowest rate in almost two years. At 1800GMT, BBK Board member Sabine Mauderer is speaking in Berlin.

Concluding the speeches and the calendar at 2330GMT, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a debate on if the financial system is safer ten years on from the global financial crisis in New York.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

US TSYS: T-Notes have stuck to a tight range thus far, with little in the way of news flow, barring a record Chinese PBoC liquidity injection via OMOs, apparent in Asia-Pacific hours. - Outside of Brexit matters and guarded comments from ECB President Draghi, Tuesday saw Fed voter George, a staunch hawk, signal her support for a pause in interest rate hikes, saying rates are approaching a neutral setting & there is no urgency to make another move, with Fed's Kashkari & Kaplan remaining cautious.

BUNDS: German fixed income futures are little changed on the day. Schatz +0.005, Bobls unch., Bunds -0.05. - Tuesday bought soft EZ data & remarks from ECB Pres Draghi, who said that "recent economic developments have been weaker than exp. & uncertainties, notably related to global factors, remain prominent," subsequently attempting to play down worries re: recession. German 2018 GDP growth came at 1.5%, the lowest in five years, while final French & Spanish Dec CPIs came at 1.9% & 1.2% respectively. - The space moved to best levels after UK PM May's Brexit deal was comfortably defeated in the Commons, and eased thereafter, although the move lower could hardly be deemed a pullback, with contracts operating just shy of Tuesday's highs at writing.

JGBS: JGB futures had a look below Tuesday's low in early trade today, but a negative start for the Nikkei 225 (-0.7% at the break) lent support, resulting in the contract trading 4 ticks higher at the lunch break. - Little reaction in the space to a strong 5-Year JGB auction, that had no tail, and exhibited a much firmer cover ratio than the previous auction. Demand was likely driven by attractive relative value proposition vs. 7-Year paper. - Space then drew support from 3-Month Euro-Yen TIBOR fixing 4.4bp lower at a new record low of 0.0300%, driving futures to intraday highs, with yields out to 7-Years dragged lower.

AUSSIE BONDS: Little in the way of notable trading activity for Aussie bond futures thus far, with YM & XM both trading 0.5 tick higher on the day, in a tight range. YM/XM trades at 51.00, with the cash 3-/10-Year yield differential last 47.8bp. The AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread trades at -43.3bp.

STOCKS: The tech sector took another hit on Wednesday as Taiwan's leading memory chip manufacturer, Nanya Technology, noted that it will slash 2019 CapEx by 50%, levying the blame on trade tensions between Washington & Beijing. Nanya also highlighted a net profit plunge in the most recent quarter. - Chinese linked shares were fairly unreactive to the latest round of cash injection from the PBoC & slowing Chinese house price growth. - Australia's ASX 200 outperformed, just, even with the materials sector trading lower.

OIL: WTI & Brent hover around unchanged levels after sticking to a tight range overnight. The major benchmarks drew support from hopes surrounding Chinese fiscal stimulus, RTRS reports of renewed oil flows between the U.S. & China, as well as conflict in Libya on Tuesday.

GOLD: Gold stuck to a tight range overnight, with little in the way of headline catalysts apparent, trading just of $1,290/oz at writing.

FOREX: GBP & the fallout from yesterday's meaningful vote, which saw UK lawmakers overwhelmingly reject PM May's Brexit deal, were in the spotlight overnight. Major GBP crosses touched session lows before recovering from worst levels, in generally ltd trade. May will face a vote of no confidence around 1900GMT Weds, after it was tabled by the Labour Party; with the ERG faction (reportedly) & DUP Party committed to backing the gov't, May is exp. to survive & proceed to cross-party talks re: Brexit ahead of another trip to Brussels. - A negative session for Japanese stocks owing to worry over the health of the global tech space helped push the JPY to the top of the G10 FX leaderboard, although U.S. equity index futures are marginally higher at writing. - AU Westpac cons. conf. slipped into pessimistic territory for the first time since Nov '17, pressing AUD/USD below $0.7200 for the bulk of the session, although the move was limited.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (H19) JAN 3 HIGHS ON THE RADAR

The recovery in Bund futures has reasserted itself as bulls eye a return to the Jan 3 high at 165.10. Above here would solidify the longer term uptrend and open the Sep 2017 high at 165.83. The 21-dma at 163.91 acts as initial support, with a break below needed to shift the outlook negative and target the Dec 27 low at 163.15.

EUROSTOXX50: 3100 AND 50-DMA REMAIN IN FOCUS

Bulls continue to target the 3100 level and the 50-dma just above it at 3008.24. A break above here would suggest a potential bullish trend change, opening down trendline resistance at 3140 ahead of the Dec 3 high at 3244.98. Bears look for a move below the 21-dma to open the 3000 level. Below here would open a retest of the Dec 27 low at 2908.70.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - WTI Crude (CL) Trying to Form Weekly Chart Reverse Head & Shoulders


WTI Crude (CL) Trying to Form Weekly Chart Reverse Head & Shoulders

Happy 2019!  Hope you've all enjoyed the holiday season.  On Jan 8, Today's Top 3 Trades made another important tweak to its format  (described here), due to suggestions by readers to maintain a top trade idea of the day, irrespective of asset class.

WTI Crude (CL) is consolidating its 5th straight day ahead of this week's highly anticipated weekly inventory numbers released at 1030am EST today.  I was overly cautious in last week's analysis, but remain on the lookout for a post-data healthy pullback in the next 24hrs before contemplating going long.  A deeper selloff is unlikely as longer term bulls are increasingly looking to buy on dips now that CL has decisively broken descending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart) and a 3 month downchannel resistance (on the daily chart).  More likely will be another few days or so of consolidation in the 49-53 range before resuming a rally towards the 38.2% Fib retrace of the Oct-Dec slide.  Significantly, CL appears to be forming a Reverse Head & Shoulders on the weekly chart.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), and am targeting the red zone for early next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

 

WTI Crude (CME CL Feb19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on Natural Gas, Raw Sugar

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22341




Futures

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures (01.16.2019)


Euro (March)

Session close: Settled at 1.14605, down 66 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro got run over by the one-two punch of Draghi and Brexit. The British Pound fell as much as 2 cents today through the U.K’s Parliamentary vote on Prime Minister May’s deal and potential ousting before paring all loses but left the Euro high and dry. This was because ECB President Mario Draghi left a sour taste after pointing to recent economic weakness due to the China slowdown, international trade headwinds, Brexit and the U.S tightening policy. The recent data is undeniable with Factory Orders, Industrial Production and PMIs all missing. The weakness is seen to slow down any potential tightening the ECB was considering for later this year.

On the flip side, the Dollar had a strong day but not because of Dollar strength. In fact, NY Empire State Manufacturing grew at the slowest pace since May 2017 and PPI came in soft. Furthermore, Kansas City Fed President George who is/was known as the most hawkish member of the Fed said, “it might be a good time for the Fed to pause normalizing”. All in all, the Dollar rallied today, but we do not see this move holding ground.

Technicals: Today’s session low was 1.1441, and we now have first key support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

 

Yen (March)

Session close: Settled at .92555, down 32.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The S&P reached the highest level since December 17th and major benchmarks in Asia, including the Nikkei futures gained as much as 2%. The Yen took a swift risk-on kick last night and into this morning after China announced additional stimulus measures through a large-scale tax cut. This is not a favorable environment for the Yen but additionally given the British Pound back to unchanged and Crude Oil up 3%, everything went right for risk assets today. The next 24-48 hours will be crucial for the Yen as it tests a key technical level discussed below; if risk-assets do not continue on this path, the Yen can still have a very healthy week. Tonight, Machinery Orders data and Tertiary Industrial Activity is due from Japan at 5:50 pm and 10:30 pm CT.

Technicals: We trust the process and our line in the sand major three-star support comes in at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

 

Aussie (March)

Session close: Settled at .7200, down 6 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie is showing signs of exhaustion after a tremendous run since its January 3rd reversal. This can be seen through the failure to move higher and hold higher after favorable news from China last night. Furthermore, equity markets around the globe gained ground. The U.S Dollar strengthened but not in a broad fashion. Overall, we see today’s move in the U.S Dollar as short-lived strength. Our rhetoric from yesterday remains, we like the Aussie but from a better location. Westpac Consumer Sentiment is due tonight at 5:30 pm CT.

Technicals: We are closely watching our pivot at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

 

Canadian (March)

Session close: Settled at .75405, down 8 ticks

Fundamentals: Similar to the Aussie, the Canadian is showing signs of exhaustion. The U.S Dollar was not broadly strong today, data missed and the most hawkish Fed member, a 2019 voter, called for a pause in hikes. Furthermore, Crude Oil gained 3% and the Canadian lost ground. Traders showed be patient and let this rally breathe.

Technicals: Today was a higher low and the bulls have the clear upper-hand above .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22340




Macro

Interactive Brokers - The U.S. Week Ahead - Greenwich Wealth Management CIO Vahan Janjigian on Consumer Sentiment


Interactive Brokers senior market analyst Steven Levine discusses consumer sentiment with Greenwich Wealth Management CIO Vahan Janjigian. Levine also provides some highlights for what to look for in the United States in the week beginning January 14. Experience the IBKR Platform! Use our powerful trading platform to begin trading a simulated account for free and without commitment.

Click here to start your free trial today:

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=youtube7&url=%2Fen%2Findex.php%3Ff%3D1286

 

Produced on January 11, 2019

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22322




Macro

London Stock Exchange Group - FTSE 100


The UK has always been at the forefront of financial innovation, bringing UK and international companies and investors together to raise and invest capital efficiently. Firms from 100 countries are listed on London Stock Exchange and the FTSE 100 index is seen as the global benchmark for blue-chip firms listed on London Stock Exchange. An index tracks the performance of a basket of securities and is increasingly used by investors to issue investment products, such as exchange traded funds (ETFs), and to measure performance. Created by FTSE Russell over 30 years ago, the FTSE 100, as its name suggests, tracks the performance of the 100 largest eligible companies listed on London Stock Exchange ranked in order by their market capitalisation. When the FTSE 100 first launched, the combined value of companies was around £160 billion, but today this stands at over £2 trillion – a testament to the growth of our global capital markets.

--

London Stock Exchange is the world’s most international exchange. Nearly 2,500 companies from more than 90 countries are quoted across its markets, with a combined value of £4.4 trillion. London Stock Exchange’s markets include the Main Market – London’s flagship venue for equity, debt and exchange traded products, offering businesses access to Europe’s most liquid pool of capital – and AIM – the world’s leading market for small and growing companies

This publication does not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to sell, any securities, or the solicitation of a proxy, by any person in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorised, or in which the person making such an offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so, or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. London Stock Exchange has taken reasonable efforts to ensure that the information contained in this publication is correct at the time of going to press, but shall not be liable for decisions made in reliance on it. Therefore, please note that this publication may be updated at any time. The information contained in this publication and any other publications referred herein are for guidance purposes only. London Stock Exchange and the coat of arms device are registered trade marks of London Stock Exchange plc.

 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from London Stock Exchange Group and is being posted with London Stock Exchange Group’s permission. The information provided in this material is from London Stock Exchange Group and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Disclosures

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